On a call this week, I heard a familiar complaint: finance cannot budget for AI because the returns are too difficult to measure. That explanation has become a convenient shelter from harder operating decisions. In “CFOs Do Not Have an AI Budget Problem”, I argue that the real gap is understanding how work gets done, what it costs, and what should change after deployment.
Model usage already comes with a receipt. Labor, cycle time, errors, capacity, and quality can all be tracked against a baseline. What remains uncomfortable is attaching those gains to hiring, roles, and accountability. CFOs should stop funding AI as a broad category and start underwriting individual workflows with owners, targets, and consequences.
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The roundup
This week: Ant International introduced an AI-native stack for payments, treasury, foreign exchange and agent-authorized transactions · S&P Global agreed to acquire smart-contract security provider OpenZeppelin, expanding its infrastructure for tokenized finance and stablecoins · TSG’s Tom Bell argues payments investors must move beyond volume-and-margin consolidation toward embedded working capital and proprietary merchant data as the next value-creation layer · Wayflyer secured a $50 million corporate debt facility from Trinity Capital to expand its working-capital capacity · 91% of PE-backed CFOs cannot size their AI budget, yet 83% of portfolios have active pilots — fewer than 1 in 5 have tied any pilot to measurable value.
The one thing
Ant International introduced an AI-native stack for payments, treasury, foreign exchange and agent-authorized transactions.
Ant International announced the stack and related agent-payment controls on Friday, with global rollout planned for the fall and winter.
My take: If I owned a payments platform, I would make agent identity and revocable monetary authority part of the core ledger now because retrofitting them after volume arrives will be materially more expensive.
Payments
S&P Global agreed to acquire smart-contract security provider OpenZeppelin, expanding its infrastructure for tokenized finance and stablecoins.
The acquisition agreement was announced this week, adding transaction-security capabilities to S&P Global’s digital-assets portfolio.
My take: If I owned a payments platform entering tokenized settlement, I would secure audited contract infrastructure before pursuing distribution because a preventable exploit can erase the economics of the entire expansion.
Office of the CFO
TSG’s Tom Bell argues payments investors must move beyond volume-and-margin consolidation toward embedded working capital and proprietary merchant data as the next value-creation layer.
Bell’s analysis, published September 14, articulates a structural shift in what payments assets are worth — timely as deal teams underwrite vertical SaaS and payfac targets in the current cycle.
My take: If you own a vertical SaaS platform with payment volume but no embedded lending product, you are leaving the highest-margin revenue line on the table — the operational data you already hold is the underwriting asset, and the window to build or acquire that capability before a larger acquirer does is closing.
Also: Wayflyer secured a $50 million corporate debt facility from Trinity Capital to expand its working-capital capacity. — The facility was announced yesterday as Wayflyer seeks additional capital for small-business financing demand and new growth initiatives.
AI inside operating companies
91% of PE-backed CFOs cannot size their AI budget, yet 83% of portfolios have active pilots — fewer than 1 in 5 have tied any pilot to measurable value.
New survey data from Accordion, published this week, quantifies the AI budgeting gap across PE portfolios at a moment when AI spend is accelerating and boards are demanding accountability.
My take: Tag every AI initiative in your portfolio to a named business owner and a specific P&L line before the next board meeting — if you cannot do that today, you do not have an AI strategy, you have an AI expense.
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Ernest
Fern Capital